VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ENROLMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INNIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH, 1980–2024

Abstract

The study examined the contribution of vocational education to reducing unemployment in Nigeria using an ex
post facto design based on secondary data. Annual time series data covering 45 observations (1980–2024) were
sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2024), including vocational education enrolment,
unemployment rate, and population growth. The analysis was conducted using Stata 17.0. The Phillips-Perron
unit root test was applied to ensure stationarity and avoid spurious regression. The Autoregressive Distributed
Lag (ARDL (2,1,1)) model was then estimated to assess both short-run and long-run relationships. The bounds
test provided weak and borderline evidence of cointegration, leading to the acceptance of the null hypothesis of
no long-run relationship. Despite a strong model fit (R² = 0.9327), the results show that unemployment has no
significant effect on enrolment. In the long run, unemployment has a marginal positive effect, while population is
insignificant. In the short run, enrolment is driven by its past values and negatively affected by population growth.
Overall, enrolment is influenced more by past trends and demographic pressure than by unemployment. The study
recommends increased government investment in vocational education.